传染病爆发导致政治不信任
Ore Koren1,2, Nils B Weidmann2
1Department of Political Science, Tobias Center for International Development, Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Analysis, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN 47405.
概括
致命的传染病疫情显著降低了公众对政治机构的信任,包括总统和议会. 这项研究强调了流行病与政治不稳定之间的联系,敦促采取综合公共卫生和建立信任的战略.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 新出现的传染病具有深刻的社会影响,在历史上与黑瘟疫和西班牙流感相当.
- 疫情对政治信任和稳定的影响仍未得到充分研究.
- 最近的事件,如COVID-19大流行,强调需要了解疾病爆发的后果.
研究的目的:
- 调查暴露于动物传播疾病爆发和公众对政治机构的信任之间的因果关系.
- 量化传染病爆发对政府实体信任的影响.
- 为疫情如何影响政治两极分化和稳定提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 利用了一套关于动物传播疾病 (埃博拉,马尔堡,H1N1,黑色瘟疫) 爆发的新型数据集.
- 来自多个非洲国家的综合地理定位Afrobarometer调查数据.
- 工作人员粗精确匹配,以估计平均治疗效果在受治疗者.
主要成果:
- 经历传染病爆发的个人对政治机构的信任显著下降.
- 在四分级上,总统 (0.2分),议会 (0.18分) 和执政党 (0.22分) 的信任减少最为明显.
- 结果在不同的空间和时间分析中保持一致,证实了稳定性.
结论:
- 致命的传染病爆发明显侵蚀了制度信任,并可能加剧政治两极分化.
- 这些疫情对政治稳定构成重大威胁.
- 政策战略必须将公共卫生准备与在卫生危机期间维持和恢复机构信任的措施相结合.
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