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气候变化下的SWAT+高级水文评估:对气候敏感和水库规范的大型流域的综合框架
Debasish Mishra1, Hrishikesh Singh1, Munish Kumar1
1Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India.
The Science of the total environment
|July 17, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的模型来预测印度的河流流量.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 管理水资源 管理水资源
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 有效的水资源规划需要了解在不断变化的水气候条件下流动的流动力学,特别是在受监管的盆地.
- 印度的马哈纳迪河流域 (MRB) 是一个大型,气候敏感的流域,面临着显著的水气候变化.
- 精确的流量预测对于管理水资源和减轻洪水风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和实施一个动态的水库-流水流量建模框架,用于玛哈纳迪河流域.
- 在各种气候变化场景下模拟历史和未来的流动模式.
- 评估变化的水气候条件对河流流动力学和水的可用性的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了土壤和水评估工具Plus (SWAT+) 与动态水库操作模块.
- 采用了来自19个CMIP6全球气候模型 (GCM) 的CLIMEA-BCUD数据集,用于气候预测.
- 与历史站级降水和温度数据对比,验证了模型的性能.
主要成果:
- 气候-BCUD数据集准确地捕捉了历史降水和温度变化 (CC> 0.9,NSE> 0.85).
- 未来的气候场景预测季风降雨的季节性转变,峰值流动从7月到8月.
- 在SSP5-8.5下,模拟预计流量 (高达52.3%) 和降水量 (高达28.5%) 在SSP5-8.5下显著增加,洪水潜力加剧.
- 雨季流量预计将增加 (高达61.3%),而干季流量可能会减少 (高达34.1%),因为蒸发的增加.
结论:
- 开发的动态水库流动模型框架可用于气候敏感,受监管的盆地.
- 该研究提供了对气候变化水文反应的关键见解.
- 这些发现支持对MRB和类似盆地的气候适应性水资源管理策略的制定.
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