含糊不清的面背后的风险:在社会和非社会不确定性来源下的决策
Nina Lauharatanahirun1,2, Jason A Aimone3, Jeffrey Braxton Gately4,5
1Department of Biomedical Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
概括
个人 个人 个人
科学领域:
- 决策研究 决策研究
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 决策在已知概率 (风险) 和未知概率 (模两可) 的环境中不同.
- 有限的研究探讨了不确定性源 (社会与非社会) 如何影响决策.
- 现有的研究主要集中在已知的概率上,忽视了模两可.
研究的目的:
- 调查不确定性源如何影响在已知和未知的概率下决策.
- 引入和测量"社会风险敏感性",跨越不同级别的模两可.
- 扩大对模两可效应的先前研究,包括不确定性的来源.
主要方法:
- 使用了对象内部的实验设计.
- 参与者在三个不确定性环境中做出决定:风险 (没有模糊性),低模糊性和高模糊性.
- 为了评估个体差异,计算了一项"社会风险敏感度"指标.
主要成果:
- 在所有三个模两可的水平上,在社会风险敏感性之间发现了强烈的相关性.
- 决策行为与先前关于模两可效应的研究结果一致.
- 个人对不确定性源的敏感性显著影响决策.
结论:
- 不确定性的来源在决策中发挥着至关重要的作用,即使在模两可的情况下.
- 社会风险敏感度的个体差异是影响不确定的环境中选择的关键因素.
- 这项研究开创了对模两可的决策中不确定性源效应的研究.
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