基于初级医疗保健数据的登革热爆发预警系统:巴西全国性的案例研究
Rejane Santos-Silva1, Pilar Tavares Veras Florentino1,2, Thiago Cerqueira-Silva2,3
1Centro de Integração de Dados e Conhecimento para Saúde (Cidacs), Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz Bahia), Salvador, Brazil.
Lancet regional health. Americas
|July 18, 2025
概括
初级医疗保健数据可以为巴西的早期登革热爆发检测系统提供动力. 这种使用早期偏差报告系统 (EARS) 的方法为公共卫生监测提供了可扩展和及时的解决方案.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 传统的监测方法在及时检测疫情时存在局限性.
- 初级医疗保健 (PHC) 的行政数据为综合征监测提供了一个具有成本效益的替代方案.
- 将PHC数据集成到早期预警系统 (EWS) 中可以增强疫情检测能力.
研究的目的:
- 评估使用PHC数据用于早期检测巴西登革热爆发的EWS的潜力.
- 根据PHC遭遇,评估EWS的及时性,灵敏性和积极预测值 (PPV).
- 证明将例行PHC数据集成到国家EWS中的可行性.
主要方法:
- 将早期异常报告系统 (EARS-C1和EARS-C2) 应用于与 arbovirus 相关的 PHC 接触.
- 从2022年10月1日到2024年3月1日期间,利用了来自巴西5570个市镇的数据.
- 对固定发病率登革热爆发值进行了评估EWS的表现.
主要成果:
- 基于PHC的EWS在96.3%的市镇发现了与树冠病毒相关的遭遇,在94.6%的市镇发现了登革热病例.
- 欧洲预警系统预计,疫情爆发率为48.5%的病例在100个病例/100万居民,为68.4%的病例在300个病例/100万居民.
- 在人口超过10万的市镇,疫情的检测更及时.
结论:
- 应用于PHC数据的EARS算法可以比传统方法提前四周预测登革热爆发.
- 常规的PHC数据集成为EWS提供了更广泛的覆盖范围和可扩展性.
- 这项研究证实了使用PHC数据用于早期检测巴西登革热爆发的可行性.
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