贝叶斯的时空条件自回归局部建模技术用于社会经济因素和印度尼西亚的衰老
Aswi Aswi1, Septian Rahardiantoro2, Anang Kurnia2
1Statistics Department, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia.
MethodsX
|July 18, 2025
概括
在印度尼西亚,儿童发育迟缓与贫困和低出生体重有关. 贝叶斯的时空模型显示,从2020年到2022年,各省份的衰老风险存在显著的区域差异.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 空间流行病学 空间流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 发育迟缓在印度尼西亚是一个严重的公共卫生挑战,其空间和时间差异很大.
- 了解这些变化对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定关键的风险因素,并在印尼各省份绘制地图.
- 通过先进的统计建模,分析衰老的时空模式.
主要方法:
- 采用一个等级化的贝叶斯空间-时间局部化的有条件自回归 (CAR) 模型,其中包含一个集群组件.
- 评估了480个模型,包括贝叶斯的时空局部化CAR变体,32个共变量组合和五个超前设置.
- 使用马尔科夫连锁蒙特卡洛方法与Poisson概率的衰退计数.
主要成果:
- 最佳模型确定了贫困率和低出生体重发病率作为衰老的重要风险因素.
- 较高的贫困和低出生体重患病率与增长迟缓的风险相关.
- 时空聚类显示,各省的发育阻碍风险各不相同,东南努萨丁加拉和苏拉韦西巴拉特显示高风险,雅加达首都显示最低风险.
结论:
- 贝叶斯的时空模型有效地分类了不同的区域组,并分析了印度尼西亚的衰老模式.
- 包括共变量在内显著影响了空间集群的识别.
- 贫困和低出生体重是衰老风险的关键决定因素,需要有针对性的公共卫生战略.
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