在中国的碳中和转型中,基于情景的电价预测
Shurui Wang1, Jianlei Mo1, Jie Yang1
1Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
iScience
|July 18, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 电力系统分析 分析 分析
背景情况:
- 中国的目标是到2060年实现碳中和,需要大大改变电力市场.
- 脱碳路径为中国的电力部门带来了挑战和机遇.
- 了解区域电价动态对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计到2060年,在各种脱碳化场景下,中国的省级电价的范围.
- 分析技术进步和优化发电对未来电力成本的影响.
- 为评估电力市场政策干预提供量化基础.
主要方法:
- 采用了自下而上的计算方法,利用了发电机组的综合数据集.
- 分析包括基线,低效率和高效率脱碳场景.
- 省级电价的估计是基于预计的发电组合和效率.
主要成果:
- 预计到2060年,大多数中国省份的电价将出现下降.
- 技术进步和优化发电是降价的关键驱动力.
- 场景分析揭示了一系列潜在的价格结果,取决于脱碳效率.
结论:
- 中国向碳中和过渡可能会导致大多数地区的电价下降.
- 该研究为中国电力市场脱碳政策的经济影响提供了宝贵的见解.
- 调查结果支持基于证据的政策制定,以促进可持续能源发展和市场监管.
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