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计划如何为未来的不确定性做好准备:整合土地变化建模和计划整合以实现弹性得分卡TM
Youjung Kim1, Galen Newman2, Philip Berke3
1University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
Journal of planning education and research
|July 18, 2025
概括
沿海社区需要有弹性的增长战略,为未来的城市扩张和洪水风险做好准备,特别是随着气候变化. 目前的计划可能不足以减轻洪水增加的脆弱性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 城市规划是城市规划.
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 沿海社区面临着城市增长和洪水风险的日益增加的风险.
- 评估准备程度需要将城市发展模型与弹性框架相结合.
研究的目的:
- 通过综合建模,评估沿海社区对未来城市增长和洪水风险的准备情况.
- 在各种气候和增长场景下评估当前规划策略的有效性.
主要方法:
- 土地变化建模 (LCM) 与计划整合复原性得分卡 (PIRSC) 方法的整合.
- 在静态和不断变化的气候条件下对城市增长的场景分析.
主要成果:
- 坦帕目前的计划足以在静态气候条件下实现城市增长.
- 气候变化情景揭示了脆弱性,表明需要比目前的土地利用计划允许的更具弹性增长.
- 一些现有政策可能会在未来加剧洪水的发生,加剧洪水的脆弱性.
结论:
- 适应性增长战略对于沿海社区适应气候变化和城市扩张至关重要.
- 当前的土地利用计划可能不足以应对未来因气候变化而加剧的洪水风险.
- 政策评估和调整是必要的,以避免在脆弱的沿海地区产生反作用的结果.
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