婴儿肠口术后并发症的危险因素:开发临床预测模型
Zhaolan Zeng1,2, Yanling Hu1,2, Shulin Hou1,2
1Department of Neonatology Nursing, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Frontiers in public health
|July 18, 2025
概括
接受肠静脉切除术的婴儿面临着很高的并发症风险. 手术时体重较低,小肠静脉瘤和长时间的高C反应蛋白水平是新预测模型中发现的关键风险因素.
科学领域:
- 儿科手术 儿科手术
- 新生儿护理 新生儿护理
- 临床风险预测预测
背景情况:
- 肠静脉切除术是急性腹部疾病的婴儿的关键手术.
- 短期并发症的高发病率显著影响婴儿的康复.
- 识别风险因素对于改善结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在接受肠道切除术的婴儿中确定短期并发症的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证这些并发症的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对155名经过肠静脉切除术的婴儿进行了回顾性分析.
- 多因素物流回归用于识别风险因素.
- 使用R软件开发一个名ogram预测模型.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 的验证.
主要成果:
- 手术时体重较低,小肠静脉瘤和长期高C反应蛋白 (CRP) 是显著的危险因素.
- 预测模型实现了曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.784.4.
- 该模型表现出很好的适应性 (霍斯默-莱梅Show p=0.604) 和临床实用性.
结论:
- 婴儿体重较低,小肠静脉瘤和长期升高的CRP是肠静脉瘤并发症的主要指标.
- 开发的预测模型为风险评估提供了有价值的临床实用性.
- 这个工具可以帮助医疗保健专业人员主动管理处于危险的婴儿.
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