如果你是罕见的,我应该关心吗? 不完美的检测如何改变生物多样性与全球变化驱动因素之间的关系
Ana Miller-Ter Kuile1,2, An Bui3, Austen Apigo4
1Northern Arizona University, School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA.
Global change biology
|July 18, 2025
概括
稀有物种对于理解生物多样性变化至关重要. 本研究引入了一种方法来准确评估生物多样性,通过计算检测错误,特别是罕见物种,改进生态评估.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性科学 生物多样性科学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 生态系统中的大多数物种是罕见的,但在生物多样性研究中经常被忽视.
- 忽视稀有物种可能会导致关于生态系统功能和生物多样性趋势的不准确结论.
- 稀有物种特别容易在采样设计中发现检测错误.
研究的目的:
- 开发和展示一种可通用的方法,将稀有物种纳入生物多样性评估中.
- 为了考虑到采样设计中的检测错误,使用多种物种占用和丰度模型 (MSOM/MSAM).
- 通过传播检测不确定性来获得更准确的α和β多样性指标估计.
主要方法:
- 利用多个物种占用和丰度模型 (MSOM/MSAM) 来解释检测错误.
- 从MSOM/MSAM传播的不确定性来估计α和β多样性指标.
- 应用回归模型来评估生物多样性与全球变化共变量之间的关系,并纳入检测不确定性.
主要成果:
- 对检测错误的计算显著改变了生物多样性和全球变化驱动因素之间的感知关系.
- 对鸟类,昆虫和植物的案例研究证明了拟议方法的影响.
- 该方法提供了更准确的生物多样性估计,这对于理解生态变化至关重要.
结论:
- 包括稀有物种和检测错误的计算对于稳健的生物多样性评估至关重要.
- 开发的分析方法增强了对生物多样性对全球变化的反应的理解.
- 这种方法改善了对生物群落正在进行的生态变化的预测.
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