印尼登革热出血性热的贝叶斯空间时空Poisson条件自回归模型,集成卫星生成的环境数据
Sukarna Sukarna1, Hari Wijayanto2, Yenni Angraini2
1Statistics and Data Science Study Program, School of Data Science, Mathematics, and Informatics, IPB University, Dramaga, Bogor; Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar.
Geospatial health
|July 18, 2025
概括
印度尼西亚 印度尼西亚 印度尼西亚
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 地理空间分析是什么
背景情况:
- 印尼在控制登革热出血热 (DHF) 方面面临挑战,其布雷托指数率一直很低.
- 目前的DHF映射依赖于昂贵和资源密集的调查方法.
- 有效的空间和时间监测对于DHF控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 试点一个局部化的等级贝叶斯空间时间条件自回归模型 (LHBSTCARM) 用于预测马卡萨市的DHF病例.
- 调查 DHF 发生率与遥感指数 (NDBI,NDVI,NDWI) 之间的关系.
- 为了确定DHF爆发的重大环境预测因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了局部化的等级贝叶斯空间时间条件自回归模型 (LHBSTCARM).
- 集成的哨兵-2卫星数据:规范差异构建指数 (NDBI),规范差异植被指数 (NDVI) 和规范差异水指数 (NDWI).
- 将马卡萨尔市分类为发生登革热的空间风险组.
主要成果:
- 根据LHBSTCARM模型,成功地将地区分为低,中等和高登革热风险组.
- NDVI和NDWI被确定为严重的DHF发病率的显著负面预测因素.
- 在NDVI和NDWI中增加1个单位对应于DHF病例分别减少84.5%和81.5%.
结论:
- NDVI和NDWI是预测马卡萨尔市 DHF 发病率的关键环境变量.
- LHBSTCARM方法为传统的调查方法提供了一个可行的替代方案,用于DHF监测.
- 与时空模型集成的遥感数据可以增强登革热爆发预测和控制策略.
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