骨折患者的独立风险因素和生存预测:来自10年队列的见解
Ruilong Qi1, Guohong Xu1, Zhengtong Lin1
1Department of Orthopedics, Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Dongyang, Zhejiang, China.
Journal of bone and mineral metabolism
|July 18, 2025
概括
患有骨折的老年人面临更高的死亡风险. 高龄,多种并发症和低淋巴细胞水平是不良结果的关键预测因素,指导改善患者护理.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 整形外科手术 整形外科手术
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 骨折 (HF) 在老年人中显著增加死亡率和残疾.
- 骨折 (HRF) 比初始骨折更为严重的临床挑战.
- 了解HRF预后对于改善老年患者的治疗结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析发生骨折 (HRF) 的患者的生存率.
- 开发和验证HRF患者生存的预测模型.
- 确定影响HRF预后的独立风险因素.
主要方法:
- 从2013年1月到2023年8月,对174名HRF患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 卡普兰-梅尔生存分析和考克斯比例危险回归来确定风险因素.
- 开发和验证一个名图和ROC曲线用于生存预测.
主要成果:
- HRF患者的中位生存时间为40个月.
- 死亡率的独立预测因素包括晚年,非手术干预,并发病病例数和淋巴细胞水平.
- 预测模型对1,2,3年生存率 (AUCs 0.748-0.806) 显示出很好的准确性.
结论:
- 晚年,非手术治疗,多种并发症和低淋巴细胞水平与HRF患者全因死亡率的增加有关.
- 这些已识别的因素表明骨折患者的预后不佳.
- 开发的预测模型可以帮助改善临床管理和患者的治疗结果.
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