气候压力下的E7经济体:评估社会经济影响的新框架
Fadime Aksoy1, Nuran Bayram Arlı2
1Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, Balıkesir, Türkiye.
Journal of environmental management
|July 18, 2025
概括
新兴七国 (E7) 面临着独特的气候挑战. 一个新的模型显示,E7经济体的碳社会成本 (123.25美元/) 较高,需要量身定制的减排战略.
科学领域:
- 气候变化的经济学
- 综合评估建模综合评估建模
- 新兴经济体的动态 新兴经济体的动态
背景情况:
- 新兴七国 (E7) 由于高排放量和经济增长,对全球气候行动至关重要.
- 现有的模型经常使用全球平均值和外源增长,不充分捕捉E7的经济特点.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个针对E7经济体量身定制的新型综合评估模型.
- 模拟E7的增长路径,确定最佳的减排,并估计碳的社会成本 (SCC).
主要方法:
- 将半内生生长框架与先进的气候和碳循环模块集成在一起.
- 使用聚合E7经济数据进行校准,并根据全球气候反分析区域动态.
主要成果:
- 据估计,E7国家的碳社会成本 (SCC) 为每二氧化碳123.25美元,远高于全球平均水平.
- 确定了3.54%的最佳年平均减排率,与此相关的减排成本为每122.84美元.
- 在E7经济体中,人口趋势和技术限制有助于增加SCC.
结论:
- 必须将特定区域的经济条件纳入E7国家的气候政策工具.
- 量身定制的碳定价机制对于在E7国家平衡经济发展和环境可持续性至关重要.
- 该研究为主要新兴经济体应对气候变化提供了与政策相关的框架.
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