生成型人工智能可能通过劳动力流失创造社会经济转折点
Jo-An Occhipinti1,2, William Hynes3,4, Ante Prodan5,6,7
1Mental Wealth Initiative, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Building M02C, Level 4, 94 Mallet Street, Camperdown, NSW, Australia. jo-an.occhipinti@sydney.edu.au.
Scientific reports
|July 18, 2025
概括
生成型人工智能 (AI) 可以使劳动力利用率下降一倍,到2050年收入减少26%. 迫切需要政府干预,以管理人工智能的经济影响,并保护国家精神财富.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 工作对于社会繁荣和心理健康至关重要.
- 工作不安全和失业是众所周知的心理健康风险.
- 生成型人工智能 (AI) 引发了关于就业流离失所和福利的辩论.
研究的目的:
- 探索人工智能对就业流离失所和经济稳定的影响.
- 分析人工智能驱动的衰退压力的潜力.
- 检查在AI主导的经济中维持就业安全和经济稳定的条件.
主要方法:
- 为预先分析开发了一个系统动态模型.
- 利用澳大利亚的数据作为一个案例研究.
- 研究了人工智能资本加深对劳动力利用不足和需求的影响.
主要成果:
- 人工智能资本与劳动力比率的适度增加,可以在2050年中期之前使劳动力利用率下降一倍.
- 人均可支配收入可能下降26%,消费可能下降21%.
- 为了防止收入减少,需要增加10.8倍的新就业机会.
结论:
- 高的人工智能资本与劳动力比率可能导致经济衰退,即使创造就业机会很高.
- 经济体必须研究AI在特定环境中的影响.
- 跨部门的政府措施对于平稳的AI过渡和保护国家精神财富至关重要.
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