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评估气候变化对山河流域洪水风险的影响,韩国
Agbortoko Bate Ashu1, Junsuk Kang2,3,4,5
1Research Center for Regional Climate Crisis Response, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Korea.
Scientific reports
|July 18, 2025
概括
韩国的洪水风险将大幅增加,预计洪水范围将在本世纪增加65%.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 极端天气事件需要准确的洪水风险预测来适应.
- 韩国因频繁的极端天气而面临严重的洪水破坏.
研究的目的:
- 在韩国永山河流域进行全面的洪水风险评估.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下预测未来的洪水风险.
主要方法:
- 利用全球气候模型和土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 的水文模型.
- 模拟的每日流量和水库外流为基线,中世纪和世纪末的场景.
- 分析了使用持续时间,规模,概率和频率指数的洪水风险.
主要成果:
- 预计大多数子流域的洪水风险在世纪中叶和世纪末的场景中会更高.
- 预计未来洪水范围将大约增加65%.
- 确定了整个盆地洪水风险增加的空间分布.
结论:
- 适应性策略对于缓解突然洪水和长期淹水至关重要.
- 该研究提供了一个框架,以优先考虑易受洪水袭击的地区,以便有效管理.
- 这些发现支持有效的洪水管理和预防措施的实施.
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