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根据预测的环境条件,预计哈普拉甲虫入侵的全球风险会增加

Rachel R Harman¹, William R Morrison¹, Yunus Emre Altunç^2,3

¹USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Center for Grain and Animal Health Research, 1515 College Ave, Manhattan, KS, 66502, USA.

Scientific reports

|July 18, 2025

概括

由于气候变化,卡普拉甲虫 (Trogoderma granarium) 可能会在北美和欧洲扩大其范围. 加强监测至关重要,以防止这种入侵性害虫影响谷物生产和储存.

科学领域:

农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估
侵入性物种建模侵入性物种建模

背景情况:

哈普拉甲虫 (Trogoderma granarium) 是一个重要的全球储存产品害虫,对谷物商品构成重大风险.
目前关于Trogoderma granarium在不断变化的气候条件下未来分布的知识是有限的.
几国先前的根除工作强调了这种入侵物种带来的经济和农业威胁.

研究的目的:

在各种气候变化场景下,模拟khapra甲虫的潜在未来分布.
评估在分布建模中包括所有历史和当前已建立的位置,甚至根除的位置的重要性.
确定高风险地区增加Khapra甲虫的适合性,特别是在北美和欧洲.

主要方法:

利用MaxEnt建模软件来预测物种分布.
采用了两个不同的数据集:历史范围数据和所有全球已建立的位置 (过去和现在).
在当前和未来 (2040,2080) 的气候条件下,考虑低气候变化和高气候变化场景的模拟适应性.

主要成果:

与仅使用历史数据的模型相比,纳入所有已确定的位置 (甚至根除的位置) 的模型显示出明显更大的潜在分布.
预计随着时间的推移和不断升级的气候变化场景,Trogoderma granarium的高潜在适用性 (>75%) 预计会增加.
北美和欧洲是先前根除成功的地区,被确定为具有越来越高的潜在适用性地区.

结论:

包含所有已知的事件,无论根除状态如何,对于准确的害虫分布建模至关重要.
预计未来的气候变化将扩大适合khapra虫的息地,特别是在关键农业地区.
建议加强监测,以防止Trogoderma granarium扩散到关键的内陆粮食生产和储存区域.

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