术后NT pro BNP可以预测在接受非心脏手术的老年患者中出现严重的术后并发症
Yihao Zhu1,2, Yi Zhao2, Tao Zhu2
1Department of Anesthesiology, Sichuan Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 610041, People's Republic of China.
Scientific reports
|July 18, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种使用氨基末端亲脑尿素 (NT-pro BNP) 水平来评估老年患者严重的术后并发症的预测模型,帮助早期识别风险.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 外科手术的结果
背景情况:
- 严重的术后并发症对老年手术患者构成重大风险.
- 氨基终端亲脑尿素 (NT-pro BNP) 是心血管压力的潜在生物标志物.
- 有限的研究存在于NT-pro BNP在预测严重的术后并发症的作用,特别是在老年人.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个预测模型,用于在接受整体手术的老年患者严重的术后并发症.
- 在此风险预测中评估外科手术期间的氨基终端亲脑尿素 (NT-pro BNP) 水平的有用性.
- 为临床应用创建用户友好的工具 (nomogram,web计算器).
主要方法:
- 对接受整体手术的老年患者 (≥65岁) 进行前性观察研究.
- 在手术前和手术后2小时测量血NT-pro BNP水平.
- 在模型开发和验证中应用后勤回归,ROC曲线,Hosmer-Lemeshow测试和决策曲线分析.
主要成果:
- 通过使用外科手术期间的NT-pro BNP水平,建立了两种严重术后并发症的预测模型.
- 这些模型显示出高精度,ROC曲线下的面积为0.899和0.956.
- 手术后NT-pro BNP模型显示了更高的临床净益处.
结论:
- 在外科手术期间的NT-pro BNP水平可以可靠地预测老年患者严重的术后并发症.
- 开发的名录图和网络计算器为临床医生提供了切实可行的工具,以识别高风险个体.
- 这种预测模型可以促进早期干预,并改善老年手术中的患者结果.
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