在高阿特拉斯山脉的雪水相当量的空间建模,采用基于一次性流程的方法
Siham Acharki1,2, Abdelghani Boudhar3,4, Ayoub Bouihrouchane5
1International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Benguerir, 43150, Morocco. siham.acharki@um6p.ma.
Scientific reports
|July 20, 2025
概括
准确的雪水等值 (SWE) 估计对于山区的水资源至关重要. 这项研究增强了摩洛哥的SWE和外流建模.
科学领域:
- 水文和远程传感技术
- 气候变化影响评估
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 雪水相当量 (SWE) 对山区的水供应和溪流流量至关重要,但由于数据有限,估计是具有挑战性的.
- 半干旱的山区,比如摩洛哥的高阿特拉斯山脉,在水资源方面严重依赖融雪,因此精确的SWE评估至关重要.
- 现有的方法在空间和时间分辨率方面面临限制,以有效监测积雪.
研究的目的:
- 模拟和分析SWE和摩洛哥高阿特拉斯山脉的外流的空间和时间分布.
- 通过使用卫星衍生的分数积雪覆盖面积 (fSCA) 和机器学习来验证一个建模方法.
- 了解高海拔雪地在气候变化下的区域水资源可持续性中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了Snow17模型,ERA5-Land再分析数据和MODIS fSCA用于SWE和500米分辨率的流出模拟 (2000-2022).
- 采用机器学习模型 (例如随机森林) 来缩小和纠正重新分析数据的偏差.
- 与MODIS fSCA对模拟fSCA进行验证,并使用纳什-萨克利夫效率 (NSE) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 在雪深 (SD) 模拟中实现了强大的模型性能,NSE>0.84.
- 在Tillouguite和Rheraya子盆地,在2500米以上确定了显著更高的SWE (>300毫米) 和SD (>60厘米).
- 已经证明,融雪对年度外流 (40-46%) 有着重大影响,在2500米以上的春季外流 (55-57%) 占主导地位.
结论:
- 开发并验证了一个强大的框架,以加强SWE和半干旱山区的外流估计.
- 强调高海拔雪地对水资源管理和可持续性的至关重要.
- 提供了关键的洞察力,对雪地动态的洞察力,对于适应该地区气候变化影响至关重要.
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