区域对海洋变暖和酸化极端情况的适应力潜力:在对比的路径和值下预测的脆弱性
Elise M Olson1,2, Jasmin G John3, John P Dunne4
1Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
Global change biology
|July 21, 2025
概括
方法选择显著影响海洋变暖和酸化极端的预测. 现实的适应可以减轻未来的压力事件,使它们更接近历史水平,而不是高排放场景.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 预计的海洋变暖和酸化对海洋生态系统构成重大威胁.
- 了解这些极端的频率和幅度对于预测未来影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在高二氧化碳和缓解情景下分析预计的变暖和海洋酸化极端情况.
- 调查方法选择如何影响这些预测.
主要方法:
- 分析预测的变暖和酸化极端的频率和幅度.
- 压力因子规范的绝对与基于分布的值的比较.
- 在分析中包括/排除季节性变化和固定/适应基线.
主要成果:
- 方法选择,如值规范和基线定义,导致预测压力的不同区域模式.
- 选择基线显著改变了将未来压力频率与历史或高排放场景的比较.
结论:
- 减排减缓,再加上现实的适应率,可以大大减少本世纪末值的超越.
- 缓解努力可以将预计的压力频率转移到接近历史水平,而不是高排放场景.
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