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预测膀皮癌的老年患者的早期死亡:一个基于人口的研究
Qingmai Huang1, Qianghua Hu1, Manfei Jiang1
1Department of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China.
Translational andrology and urology
|July 21, 2025
概括
这项研究确定了老年膀癌患者早期死亡的关键风险因素,并开发了一种预测预后的诺莫图. 这种工具有助于临床医生做出明智的治疗决策,以获得更好的患者结果.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 膀泌尿腺癌的发病率和死亡率随着年龄的增长而增加,特别是在60岁以后.
- 早期死亡 (6个月内) 是患有这种癌症的老年患者的一个关键问题.
研究的目的:
- 识别和分析膀尿癌的老年患者早期死亡的风险因素.
- 建立一个可靠的Nomogram模型来预测早期死亡并指导临床决策.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自SEER数据库 (2010-2015年) 的5,087名膀泌尿腺癌老年患者的数据.
- 采用多变量逻辑回归来识别早期死亡的独立风险因素.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准分析和DCA.构建并验证了一个预测性Nomogram.
主要成果:
- 确定年龄,婚姻状况,T阶段,M阶段,手术,放射治疗,化疗,大脑转移和瘤大小作为早期死亡的独立风险因素.
- 开发的Nomogram表现出强大的预测性能,AUC为0.7938 (训练) 和0.8107 (验证).
- 决策曲线分析证实了预测模型的临床适用性和实用性.
结论:
- 一个经过验证的Nomogram准确地预测了老年膀泌尿腺癌患者的临床预后.
- 这种预测工具可以实现个性化的预后评估,优化治疗策略.
- 诺莫图的目的是改善患者的临床结果和生存质量.
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