短视与完美的远见对印度尼西亚净零电力过渡的目标设定
Bintang Yuwono1,2, Lukas Kranzl1, Reinhard Haas1
1Energy Economics Group (EEG), Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drive, Technischen Universität Wien (TU Wien), Vienna 1040, Austria.
iScience
|July 21, 2025
概括
设定短期排放目标可能更便宜,但风险增加了化石燃料的使用. 将较不严格的排放目标与可再生能源政策相结合,对于可持续的能源系统至关重要.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化缓解政策的政策
- 经济建模经济建模
背景情况:
- 国际气候协议,如"巴黎协定",需要制定排放目标.
- 当前的决策往往侧重于短期的里程碑,可能会忽视长期的影响.
- 在设定目标的近视 (短视) 和完美前 (长期) 方法之间做出选择,会产生经济和环境的后果.
研究的目的:
- 调查基于近视与完美的预见设定排放目标的成本影响.
- 在长期能源规划中分析成本最小化和减排战略之间的权衡.
- 评估可再生能源政策在减轻与近视排放目标相关风险方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用了长期能源系统优化模型.
- 使用混合整数线性编程 (MILP) 来模拟完美的预测场景.
- 通过完美的预测与近视,外源性目标值来比较排放结果和成本.
主要成果:
- 在近视和完美预测排放目标之间存在显著的成本差异.
- 短视的方法,避免大幅减少排放,显示较低的直接成本差异与完美的预测相比.
- 在近视的方法下,温和的排放目标可能会增加对化石能源发电的依赖.
结论:
- 短视排放目标设置可能导致长期能源系统配置不足于最佳.
- 虽然在短期内看似具有成本效益,但近视策略可能会增加对化石燃料的依赖.
- 将雄心勃勃的可再生能源促进政策与不那么激烈的减排目标相结合,对于平衡成本和可持续性至关重要.
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