从多重危险预警系统 (MHEWS) 到所有脆弱性预警系统 (AVWS)
Ilan Kelman1,2,3,4, Carina J Fearnley1,5
1Warning Research Centre, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
iScience
|July 21, 2025
概括
灾害警告必须从危险重点转向脆弱性重点. 建议建立一个全方位脆弱性预警系统 (AVWS),以补充多重危险预警系统 (MHEWS),解决各种脆弱性,以更好地应对灾害.
科学领域:
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 社会复原力 社会复原力
- 早期预警系统 早期预警系统
背景情况:
- 灾害源于脆弱性,而不仅仅是危险,但警告系统仍然以危险为重点.
- 多危险预警系统 (MHEWS) 解决多种威胁,但共同的局限性是忽视漏洞.
- 联合国的"为所有人提供早期警告"倡议强调了改善预警系统方法的必要性.
研究的目的:
- 分析当前以危险为中心的警告系统的局限性,包括MHEWS.
- 提出一个全新的框架,全脆弱性预警系统 (AVWS),以解决脆弱性差距.
- 概述实施AVWS的后果和未来的工作.
主要方法:
- 对现有的MHEWS及其在脆弱性方面的局限性进行批判性分析.
- 全面脆弱性预警系统 (AVWS) 框架的概念化和建议.
- 讨论警报系统的社会过程方面.
主要成果:
- 尽管MHEWS具有多种危险范围,但它不足以解决潜在的漏洞.
- 建议AVWS作为MHEWS的补充系统,重点关注人类的各种脆弱性.
- 有效的预警系统必须针对不同人群的不同脆弱性,以及针对相同人群的不同危险的相似脆弱性.
结论:
- 目前的早期预警系统需要从以危险为中心的模式转变为以脆弱为中心的方法.
- AVWS为预警系统提供了一个新的模型,优先考虑了解和解决各种人类脆弱性.
- 整合AVWS原则可以通过认识到警告的社会性质来提高灾难准备能力和社会弹性.
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