预测急诊室患者数量使用极端梯度提升与时间和季节性特征工程:跨医院的比较研究
Kian A Huang1, William M Hardin1, Neelesh S Prakash1
1Radiology, University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine, Tampa, USA.
Cureus
|July 21, 2025
概括
一个极端梯度提升 (XGBoost) 模型准确地预测了急诊室 (ED) 患者数量. 这种机器学习方法显著改善了医院资源规划的传统方法.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 准确的急诊室 (ED) 患者数量预测对于医院运营至关重要.
- 现有的方法往往缺乏有效的资源分配和人员配置所需的精度.
- 模拟的医院数据为模型评估提供了一个受控的环境.
研究的目的:
- 评估XGBoost回归模型对每日ED访问次数的预测性能.
- 用合成数据将XGBoost模型与传统预测基线进行比较.
- 评估模型在优化医院资源管理方面的实用性.
主要方法:
- 工程时间特征 (周日,月份等) 和历史患者数量来训练一个XGBoost模型.
- 利用来自Kaggle数据集的三个模拟医院的合成数据.
- 基准XGBoost与使用MSE,RMSE,MAE和R2指标的天真,平均值和滚动平均值预测器进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在所有模拟医院中,XGBoost模型始终优于所有基线方法.
- 实现了R2分数在0.55到0.81之间,明显高于基线.
- 与表现最好的基线方法相比,RMSE和MAE减少了40%以上.
结论:
- 通过利用时间和历史数据模式,XGBoost模型在预测ED患者数量方面表现出卓越的准确性.
- 研究结果表明,机器学习模型可以增强医院的运营决策.
- 未来的研究应该使用现实世界的医院数据来验证这些模型.
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