对暴露于α粒子发射放射性核素的狗的死亡模式的定量建模:从竞争风险和因果推断机器学习中获得的见解
Eric Wang1, Igor Shuryak1, David J Brenner1
1Center for Radiological Research, Department of Radiation Oncology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, United States of America.
PloS one
|July 21, 2025
概括
机器学习模型显示,阿尔法发射放射性核素显著影响狗的死亡率,例如226Ra和239Pu的特定同位素显示出强烈的癌症影响. 暴露于放射性物质会导致狗的生存时间减少.
科学领域:
- 放射生物学的放射生物学
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
- 兽医医学 兽医医学 兽医医学
背景情况:
- 阿尔法发射放射性核酸对哺乳动物健康构成风险.
- 了解各种放射性核酸的剂量反应关系对于风险评估至关重要.
- 关于动物暴露于放射性核素的历史数据可以为人类健康研究提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估特定的alpha发射放射性核素对狗的死亡效应.
- 模拟剂量反应关系,考虑放射性核素类型,放射性水平,施用途径和暴露时的年龄等因素.
- 用先进的机器学习研究放射性对生存时间的因果影响.
主要方法:
- 使用随机生存森林和因果森林模型对2,576只暴露于放射性核化物 (241Am, 249Cf, 252Cf, 238Pu, 239Pu, 224Ra, 226Ra, 228Th) 的狗的数据集.
- 分析了整体死亡率,癌症,非癌症和"许多疾病"的终点.
- 以放射性水平,成分,施用方法 (注射/吸入) 和暴露时的年龄为因素.
主要成果:
- 随机生存森林模型在预测死亡率方面获得了高一致性得分 (例如,在测试数据上,癌症的0.817).
- 所有研究的放射性核素都显示出对癌症的辐射反应,其中226Ra和239Pu是最有效的. 观察到的是非线性反应.
- 发现对生存时间的显著负平均因果效应为每log10放射性单位-1.375天 (p < 2x10^-16).
- 238Pu和239Pu对"许多疾病"表现出最强烈的反应,239Pu通过吸入更具致命性.
结论:
- 机器学习有效地模拟了哺乳动物因放射性核素暴露而导致的复杂死亡模式.
- 特定的α-发射物对狗的癌症和非癌症死亡率有明显的影响.
- 放射性因果降低了生存时间,强调了解这些影响对辐射保护的重要性.
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