从发生数据中得出的热不匹配模型预测了青中病原体的流行率.
Richard P Duncan1, Ben C Scheele2, Simon Clulow1
1Centre for Conservation Ecology and Genomics, Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia.
概括
环境耐受性不匹配假设 (ETMH) 得到了一项对两鱼菌 (Bd) 的研究的支持. 主体和病原体之间的热利基不匹配预测了澳大利亚青中Bd的流行率.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 野生动物疾病是野生动物疾病.
- 病原体与宿主相互作用
背景情况:
- 新出现的传染病对野生动物群体构成重大威胁.
- 病原体的影响在宿主物种内部和宿主物种之间有所不同,受环境条件的影响.
- 环境耐受性不匹配假设 (ETMH) 假设在不同的环境条件下宿主和病原体的表现驱动了这种变化.
研究的目的:
- 通过检查热不匹配和两真菌病原体*Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis* (Bd) 的流行之间的关系来测试ETMH.
- 评估热不匹配是否可以预测澳大利亚青物种中和其中的Bd流行情况.
- 探索物种发生数据对预测病原体结果的有用性.
主要方法:
- 衍生物种从42种澳大利亚青物种的发生数据中实现了热.
- 青宿主和Bd病原体之间的量化热不匹配.
- 分析了热不匹配与物种内部和物种之间Bd流行之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 热不匹配可靠地预测了澳大利亚青物种中Bd流行率的变化.
- 在物种中,适应更温暖的宿主表现出Bd流行率随着温度的增加而下降.
- 在物种中,较高的病原体患病率与宿主和病原体之间的更密切的热亲缘关系有关.
结论:
- 这些发现强烈支持ETMH,证明其在预测野生动物疾病动态方面的应用性.
- 来自发生数据的热利基不匹配是病原体流行率的强有力的预测指标.
- 这种方法为病原体影响的空间和时间预测提供了有价值的工具,并可以为保护策略提供信息.
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