瑞典生育率在COVID-19大流行之前,期间和之后的发展
Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk1, Gunnar Andersson2
1Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Sociologiska Institutionen, Demografiska Avdelningen, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden. sofi.ohlsson-wijk@sociology.su.se.
概括
2021年,COVID-19大流行暂时提高了瑞典的生育率,特别是那些可以提前计划分娩的女性. 然后生育率再次下降,显示出大流行.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,富裕国家在2021年观察到暂时的生育率上升.
- 这一趋势在2022-2023年逆转,利率恢复到大流行前的下降.
- 关于流行病后生育趋势的研究有限,特别是针对特定群体的分析.
研究的目的:
- 分析瑞典的特定于平等和特定于群体的生育趋势.
- 调查COVID-19大流行 (2010-2022) 之前,期间和之后的生育能力变化.
- 评估2021年生育率上升对生育结构的持久影响.
主要方法:
- 使用瑞典登记数据和事件历史技术.
- 对所有生育年龄在瑞典出生的孕妇 (2010-2022) 的年产风险进行分析.
- 检查了跨社会人口因素的第一次和第二次出生风险 (2015-2022年).
主要成果:
- 观察到2021年生育率上升的"流行病模式",随后在2022年下降.
- 这种模式在能够推迟分娩的子组中突出,例如有幼儿的母亲和受过高等教育/高收入的妇女.
- 这一模式反映了2021年暂时推迟出生,导致2022年随后的短缺.
结论:
- 2021年生育率的增加是暂时的时间转移 (预期),而不是结构性的变化.
- 在生育时间上更具灵活性的子组经历了最明显的流行性生育模式.
- 疫情后持续的生育率下降与长期的人口趋势保持一致.
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