估计不确定性会影响有或没有学习机会的决策
Kristoffer C Aberg1,2, Levi Antle3,4, Rony Paz5,6
1Department of Brain Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. kc.aberg@gmail.com.
Nature communications
|July 21, 2025
概括
估计不确定性,选择样本的频率,即使没有新的学习机会,也会影响长期决策. 这种抽样偏差仍然存在,影响选择的选择与强化学习的预期结果无关.
科学领域:
- 认知神经科学 认知神经科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 计算神经科学是一种神经科学.
背景情况:
- 强化学习 (RL) 涉及结果预期和估计不确定性,这影响了探索.
- 在没有进一步学习或探索的情况下,估计不确定性对决策的长期影响仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查强化学习阶段的估计不确定性是否会在没有反的情况下影响后续决策.
- 要确定这种效应是否独立于结果预期.
主要方法:
- 进行了强化学习阶段与反.
- 随后的测试阶段没有反评估决策偏见.
- 使用计算建模来适应行为数据.
主要成果:
- 在学习过程中获得的采样率与测试阶段的决策偏差相关.
- 估计不确定性改进了计算模型的匹配,特别是在样本较少的选项中.
- 结果在两个独立的数据集中复制.
结论:
- 在强化学习过程中获得的估计不确定性可以产生持久的决策偏见.
- 这种偏见是独立于结果预期的.
- 估计不确定性是理解人类决策的关键因素.
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