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美国大的超越概率的历史变化
Eunsaem Cho1,2, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf3,4, Gabriele Villarini5,6
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA.
Nature communications
|July 21, 2025
概括
由于气候变化,老化的水面临越来越多的过度覆盖风险. 我们的分析揭示了越来越多的美国大具有关键的超越概率,突出了对大安全评估和主动风险减轻的迫切需要.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 气候变化影响评估
- 土木工程和水安全工程
背景情况:
- 美国老化的水基础设施引发了人们对由于非静止的水文极端而导致的潜在故障的担忧.
- 极端天气事件的频率和强度增加对水完整性和下游社区构成风险.
- 传统的水安全分析可能无法完全捕捉与气候变化相关的不断变化的风险.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用长期水位数据,对美国大的水突破概率的时间趋势进行调查.
- 在不断变化的水文条件下评估水失效的风险.
- 识别可能对社会构成威胁的具有关键突破概率的水.
主要方法:
- 美国33座超过50年公共领域的水的分析. 长期的无控制水位的时间序列.
- 在30年滚动周期 (1973-2022) 上使用一般化极端值分布的静止频率分析的应用.
- 评估大突破概率的时间趋势,区分关键 (低,中等,高) 和非关键 (非常低) 级别.
主要成果:
- 随着时间的推移,水数量呈现临界突破概率的趋势越来越大.
- 确定了具有非临界突破概率的水数量的相应下降.
- 六座水被确定具有最高的覆盖概率,几个位于大人口中心附近,并被归类为大型,高危潜在的水.
结论:
- 这项研究强调了传统分析仅仅基于水位的不足,无法揭示不断变化的覆盖风险.
- 确定高风险的水需要主动管理和风险评估策略.
- 调查结果强调了更新分析的重要性,以确保大的安全性,并减轻老化的基础设施对社会造成的威胁.
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