原住民知识,森林景观建模,以及环境变化的累积影响
Annie Claude Bélisle1,2, Chrystal Mantyka-Pringle3,4, Yan Boulanger5
1Conseil de la Première Nation Abitibiwinni, Pikogan, Québec, Canada.
概括
北克的土著社区面临着气候变化和林业对传统土地的重大威胁. 预测显示森林变化迅速,影响狩猎,陷和文化福祉,需要适应性策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 土著研究土著研究.
- 林业管理 林业管理
背景情况:
- 极地景观日益受到气候变化,林业和工业活动的影响.
- 这些压力因素影响了土著人民的福祉和传统的土地使用习惯.
- 东北加拿大,特别是Eeyou (克里族) 和Anishnaabe社区,正在经历这些环境转变.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个整合土著知识和森林模拟的景观价值模型.
- 评估土著景观价值对环境变化的脆弱性.
- 确定气候变化与林业作为这些变化的驱动因素的相对重要性.
主要方法:
- 根据土著专家采访 (丰富,质量,获取,经验) 开发了一个具有12个变量的景观价值模型.
- 在气候变化和林业综合场景下,利用LANDIS-II进行森林景观模拟 (2000-2100).
- 集成土著知识与模拟使用贝叶斯网络进行概率模型.
主要成果:
- 预测表明,森林结构和构成的快速和显著变化.
- 脆弱的价值包括与成熟,未被破坏的森林相关的价值,影响狩猎和陷等传统活动,以及文化实践 (资源利用).
- 木材采伐率显著影响了景观变化的时间和规模;气候变化的影响在区域上是可变的,通常与野火频率有关.
结论:
- 适应策略对于面临北极景观变化的土著社区至关重要.
- 建议包括降低木材采伐率和实施防范野火.
- 珍视替代森林用途对于维护土著的景观价值和福祉至关重要.
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