使用人工智能来建模未来的社会不稳定性
Fanqi Zeng1, Grant Blank2, Ralph Schroeder2
1Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
概括
这项研究模拟了未来的财政约束和社会支出,预测的是无法应对,而不是危机. 劳动年龄人口减少可能导致全球支出危机和社会紧张局势.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 人口统计数据 人口统计数据
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
背景情况:
- 现有的模型预测未来的政治危机,特别是由Turchin.
- 社会不稳定的预测往往局限于西方国家.
- 预测未来的结构约束需要强大的比较分析.
研究的目的:
- 为未来的结构约束和由此产生的不稳定性开发一个预测模型.
- 为迫在眉的危机预测提供一种替代预测.
- 为了将不稳定预测扩展到西方国家之外.
主要方法:
- 使用现有的数据集来推断长期模式.
- 采用一个比较历史分析框架.
- 将四个不同的国家案例进行比较:美国,瑞典,印度和中国.
主要成果:
- 一个可能的情景涉及到财政约束,限制国家收入,以应对不断增加的社会支出.
- 预计工作年龄人口减少将导致中国的支出危机.
- 由于人口结构的变化,其他国家预计会出现社会紧张局势.
结论:
- 该模型表明,越来越多的人无法管理财政和社会支出压力.
- 未来的不稳定性很可能是人口变化和财政限制所导致的.
- 这些发现为危机驱动的地缘政治预测提供了替代方案.
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