人们对存在的风险做出了不理想的决定
Adam Elga1, Jian-Qiao Zhu2, Thomas L Griffiths3
1Department of Philosophy, Princeton University, United States of America.
Cognition
|July 22, 2025
概括
人们很难有效地分配资源来应对存在的风险. 尽管他们了解风险响应能力,但他们对可能性较低的威胁投资不足,这是因为他们对人类生存至关重要的多重决策的直觉有缺陷.
科学领域:
- 决策科学科学 决策科学
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 存在的风险研究研究.
背景情况:
- 为了最大限度地提高人类在存在风险面前的生存概率,需要实现多重目标,这与典型的附加性决策问题不同.
- 了解在不确定性下对低概率,高影响事件的人类决策对于有效的资源配置至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 推导出资源分配的最佳策略,在多种存在的风险中最大限度地提高生存概率.
- 评估个人如何在具有多重目标的场景中做出决定,并识别系统偏见.
主要方法:
- 对一个关于生存概率的乘法客观函数的最佳解决方案的推导.
- 对2072名参与者的人类决策的实验性评估,对存在的风险提出了资源配置选择.
主要成果:
- 参与者表现出对风险反应的敏感性,但表现出保守的决策.
- 对生存概率较低的风险分配了不足的资源,这表明存在系统偏差.
- 这种模式一直存在,即使当生存概率被明确强调时.
结论:
- 人类的直觉在应对存在的风险减缓中固有的多重目标时,系统地失败.
- 个人可能需要明确的指导或培训来克服对长期生存概率分配资源的偏见.
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