全球太阳能光伏供应链的政策驱动型转型以及由此产生的影响
Can Cui1,2, Katherine Emma Lonergan1,2, Giovanni Sansavini3,4
1Institute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
Nature communications
|July 22, 2025
概括
实现可再生能源目标需要扩大太阳能光伏 (PV) 生产. 尽管区域目标是实现自给自足,但预计到2030年,中国将主导光伏供应链,这凸显了开放贸易政策的必要性.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 可持续的技术 可持续的技术
背景情况:
- 全球可再生能源目标需要大幅扩大太阳能光伏 (PV) 制造能力.
- 目前的光伏供应链在很大程度上集中在中国,这给那些寻求更大的自给自足和减少排放的地区带来了挑战.
- 增加当地就业机会是许多投资可再生能源基础设施的地区的一个关键目标.
研究的目的:
- 分析从2021年到2030年光伏供应链的未来发展.
- 评估各种欧洲经济和创造就业目标对光伏供应链配置的影响.
- 评估区域自给自足,成本效益和全球供应链动态之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 供应链优化模型的应用.
- 根据不同的政策目标,对光伏供应链发展的场景分析.
- 根据预计需求,预测全球生产能力需求.
主要成果:
- 预计到2030年,中国将在光伏供应链中保持全球主导地位,特别是价值较低的组件.
- 为了满足预计的需求,全球光伏生产能力必须增加至少1.5倍.
- 互利的结果是可能的,例如增加区域自给自足和创造就业机会,但孤立主义政策导致显著的低效率.
结论:
- 开放贸易政策对于最大限度地降低光伏供应链成本至关重要,即使考虑到安全和环境目标.
- 将区域目标与全球供应链现实相平衡,对于高效的可再生能源扩张至关重要.
- 战略性国际合作可以支持可再生能源领域的经济和环境目标.
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