用于预测外围动脉疾病的诊断模型:系统审查和元分析
Xiaoyan Quan1,2, Huarong Xiong3, Xiaoyu Liu2
1Department of Nursing, The Affiliated Hospital, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China.
Scientific reports
|July 22, 2025
概括
外周动脉疾病 (PAD) 预测模型表现良好,但往往具有很高的偏差. 未来的研究需要改进方法,以更好地用于诊断PAD的临床使用.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 周围动脉疾病 (PAD) 影响全球超过2.36亿人,增加肢体事件和死亡的风险.
- 存在许多PAD诊断预测模型,但它们的质量和临床适用性是不一致的.
- 对这些模型的方法严格性进行系统评估对于可靠的临床决策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估PAD诊断预测模型的开发或验证研究中的方法质量和偏差风险.
- 评估现有的PAD诊断预测模型的整体性能.
- 确定在PAD预测模型的设计和应用中需要改进的领域.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed,Embase,Web of Science和Cochrane图书馆进行了全面的文献搜索,截至2025年6月1日.
- 来自24项符合条件的PAD诊断预测模型研究的数据被两个研究人员独立选和提取.
- 预测模型偏差风险评估工具 (PROBAST) 用于评估包含的研究中的偏差风险.
主要成果:
- 大多数包括在内的24项研究都表现出高偏差风险,特别是在研究人群和统计分析方面.
- 接受器运行特征曲线 (AUC) 下的元分析面积为0.79,表明有利的预测性能.
- 通常报告的预测因素包括年龄,性别,高血压,糖尿病,吸烟和BMI,模型使用2到20个变量.
结论:
- PAD诊断预测模型显示出良好的预测性能,但存在显著的方法限制和异质性.
- 在模型设计,构建,评估和验证方面的改进对于改善临床实用性至关重要.
- 未来的努力应集中在多中心外部验证和透明报告上,以促进在临床实践中采用PAD预测模型.
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