老年土著和托雷斯海峡岛民人口患有痴呆症:基于州和地区情景的未来预测
Joanne Luke1, Jeromey Temple1, Tom Wilson1
1Demography, Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Australasian journal on ageing
|July 23, 2025
概括
预计到2051年,澳大利亚的原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民患有痴呆症的人数将大幅增加. 这种增长因地区而异,需要紧急,有针对性的痴呆症护理策略.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 土著健康土著健康
背景情况:
- 痴呆症的患病率在全球范围内不断上升,不成比例地影响着老龄化人口.
- 了解土著和/或托雷斯海峡岛民未来的痴呆负担对于卫生服务规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预计到2051年,澳大利亚的土著和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人口数量将与痴呆症有关.
- 提供州和地区一级的估计,以告知有针对性的干预措施.
主要方法:
- 用汉密尔顿-佩里投影模型的威尔逊-格罗斯曼变异来进行人口预测 (2021-2051).
- 纳入澳大利亚统计局人口普查和AIHW数据以估计痴呆症患病率.
主要成果:
- 原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民人口预计将在澳大利亚所有州和地区增长.
- 到2051年,预计45岁以上,65岁以上和80岁以上的人口比例将大幅增加.
- 预计患有痴呆症的人数将大幅增加,在各司法管辖区之间存在差异,在北领地增加了一倍以上,在ACT,新南威尔士州,塔斯马尼亚州和昆士兰州增加了五倍以上.
结论:
- 预计2021年至2051年间,患有痴呆症的土著和/或托雷斯海峡岛民的人数将增加.
- 区域人口结构的变化强调了立即需要量身定制的当地和国家痴呆症护理响应.
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