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在不断变化的世界中评估具有流行病和流行病潜力的疾病风险
Angela Fanelli1,2, Alessandro Cescatti3, Juan-Carlos Ciscar2
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Scientific Development Programmes Unit, Ispra, Italy.
Science advances
|July 23, 2025
概括
气候变化和息地丧失等人类活动增加了动物传播疾病的风险. 了解这些驱动因素对于预防未来的流行病和大流行病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 动物传播疾病构成重大威胁,有可能导致流行病和大流行病.
- 了解动物传播疾病出现的驱动因素对于全球卫生安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析动物传染病的常见驱动因素,重点关注世界卫生组织的优先疾病.
- 确定气候条件和土地利用变化对动物传播疾病风险的影响.
- 开发一个全球风险地图和流行病风险指数,以对动物感染的威胁.
主要方法:
- 分析与世界卫生组织优先动物性传染病相关的常见驱动因素.
- 评估气候条件 (温度,降雨,水资源短缺) 和土地利用变化 (侵占,密度,生物多样性丧失).
- 制定全球风险地图和流行病风险指数,整合国家特定风险和应对能力.
主要成果:
- 气候条件,包括更高的温度,降水和水资源短缺,增加了动物传播疾病爆发的风险.
- 土地利用变化,人类侵占,人口和牲畜密度增加以及生物多样性丧失是导致动物传播疾病风险的重要因素.
- 生物多样性丧失与动物传播疾病风险有着复杂的,非线性关系.
结论:
- 人类活动对具有流行病潜力的动物传染病的出现做出了重大贡献.
- 气候和土地利用变化是关键可修改的驱动因素,需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 综合性风险评估,结合疾病风险和应对能力,对于疫情准备至关重要.
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