衡量美国生物类似市场的第一行动者优势
J Daniel McGeeney1, Aylin Sertkaya1, Samantha A McCormick2
1Eastern Research Group, Inc., Concord, MA, USA.
概括
美国生物类似药市场的第一行动者获得了显著的长期市场份额优势. 这一首发优势估计在8.9-12.0个百分点之间,突显了生物类似药物早期进入市场的战略重要性.
科学领域:
- 药物经济学 药物经济学
- 市场分析市场分析.
- 制药行业的发展趋势
背景情况:
- 美国生物类似药市场正在增长,药物开发商之间的竞争也在增加.
- 了解市场动态和进入时间的长期影响对于战略规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计美国生物类药物市场中第一行动者长期稳定状态市场份额的中位数优势.
- 量化第一行动者和后来的进入者之间的市场份额差异.
主要方法:
- 使用的IQVIA全国销售前景数据,用于2015年第三季度至2023年第四季度的6种主要生物类似药 (贝瓦西祖马布,菲尔格拉斯蒂姆,因弗力西马布,佩格菲尔格拉斯蒂姆,利图西马布,特拉斯图祖马布) 的月度单位销售.
- 应用了修改后的指数衰减和物流增长函数,分别为第一行动者和后来的进入者预测长期市场份额趋势.
- 比较了稳定状态中位数市场份额,以确定第一行动者优势.
主要成果:
- 在6个研究的美国生物类似药市场中的4个市场中,预计第一行动者将比所有后续进入者获得更高的长期市场份额.
- 预测的长期稳定状态市场份额优势为第一行动者比第二进入者在8.9至12.0个百分点之间.
- 据估计,每一个百分点的市场份额优势代表了大约500万美元的年销售额,考虑到生物市场的规模.
结论:
- 在6个分析的美国市场中,有4个市场的第一个生物类似药进入者具有显著的长期市场份额优势,独立于短期定价优势.
- 这种巨大的长期财务利益可能解释了为什么一些生物类似药开发商在解决所有专利纠纷之前进入市场.
- 这些发现强调了在竞争激烈的生物类似物市场中早期进入市场的战略价值.
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