在可持续发展目标的背景下,预测乳腺癌控制的全球进展
Gizem S Nemutlu1,2, Nathaniel David Mercaldo1, Ethan Thayumanavan3
1Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
BMJ global health
|July 23, 2025
概括
预计到2030年,乳腺癌死亡率将在低收入国家上升,但在高收入国家下降. 虽然死亡率与发病率的比率在全球范围内有所改善,但大多数国家都无法实现联合国乳腺癌减少目标.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 联合国可持续发展目标3.4的目标是到2030年将过早的非传染性疾病死亡率减少三分之一.
- 许多低收入国家没有达到这一乳腺癌死亡率降低目标的轨道.
- 死亡率与发病率 (MIRs) 为评估癌症控制有效性提供了一个补充的指标,不仅仅是死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 模拟和预测世界银行不同收入群体的2020年至2030年的女性乳腺癌死亡率和MIR.
- 评估朝着联合国可持续发展目标3.4的乳腺癌死亡率减少目标取得的进展.
- 评估MIRs在了解乳腺癌控制进展方面的有用性.
主要方法:
- 利用199个国家的30-69岁女性的年龄标准化乳腺癌发病率和死亡率数据 (2000-2019).
- 世界银行按收入类别分层划分的国家 (低收入,中低收入,中高收入,高收入).
- 使用载体自回归时间序列分析来预测死亡率和MIR.
主要成果:
- 预计到2030年,乳腺癌死亡率将在低收入国家增加22.8%,在中低收入国家增加7.8%.
- 相反,预计死亡率在中高收入国家下降10%,在高收入国家下降5.4%.
- 预计MIR将在所有收入水平上下降,低收入国家减少最多,但预计只有9个国家能够实现可持续发展目标3.4的死亡率减少目标.
结论:
- 仅仅依靠死亡率可能会低估乳腺癌控制努力的进展.
- 对死亡率和MIR的综合分析提供了对查,诊断和治疗进展的更全面的了解.
- 将MIR趋势纳入全球健康评估可以更好地为未来的乳腺癌预防策略提供信息.
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