1990年至2021年全球牛皮病负担的动态趋势分析:基于GBD 2021数据的性别,年龄和区域差异的研究
Jikui Xiong1, Tiankuo Xue1, Meng Tong1
1Department of Dermatology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
Frontiers in public health
|July 24, 2025
概括
全球牛皮的流行和发病率显著增加,在高社会经济水平的地区观察到更高的负担. 未来的预测表明,这种病例的持续增加,特别是在男性中,需要改进诊断和治疗.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
背景情况:
- 牛皮是一种慢性,免疫介导的皮肤疾病,具有已知的遗传,免疫和环境联系.
- 系统性并发症,如心血管疾病和抑郁症与牛皮有关.
- 牛皮的确切原因尚不清楚,这凸显了流行病学研究的必要性.
研究的目的:
- 利用全球疾病负担 (GBD 2021) 数据库分析牛皮发病率,流行率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的全球和区域趋势.
- 检查牛皮病负担的人口差异,包括性别,年龄和社会经济地位的差异.
- 为公共卫生规划和与牛皮相关的干预提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用了GBD 2021数据库中的数据,涵盖了204个国家和地区.
- 使用DisMod-MR 2.1模型和贝叶斯元回归来估计牛皮发病率,流行率和DALYs.
- 分析了从1990年到2021年的趋势,使用年平均百分比变化 (AAPC) 和预计未来15年的负担.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年期间,全球牛皮的患病率增加了86% (23.06至42.98万),发病率增加了80% (2.85至510万).
- 在同一时期,与牛皮相关的DALY增加了85% (2至369万).
- 在社会人口指数 (SDI) 高的地区观察到更高的流行率,发病率和DALY率,中年男性的负担显著.
结论:
- 牛皮的全球负担正在升级,特别是在高SDI地区,由人口老龄化和医疗保健获得的增加推动.
- 未来的预测表明,在未来15年内,牛皮的负担将继续增加,男性受影响不成比例.
- 强调需要加强早期诊断,个性化治疗策略,以及综合性疾病综合管理,以减轻长期健康影响.
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