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解释COVID19死亡率的增长率:对以色列城市的经验分析
Yuval Arbel1, Yifat Arbel2, Amichai Kerner3
1Sir Harry Solomon School of Economics and Management, Western Galilee College, Acre, Israel.
Frontiers in public health
|July 24, 2025
概括
人口规模和平均年龄增加了严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 死亡率,而社会经济地位和疫苗接种可用性降低了死亡率. 较大,较老的城市需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 引起的全球流行病需要快速推出疫苗接种,以色列是早期采用者.
- 了解影响SARS-CoV-2每日死亡率增长率的因素对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析人口规模,平均年龄,社会经济等级和疫苗接种情况对以色列每日SARS-CoV-2死亡率增长率的影响.
- 量化这些共变量对死亡率趋势的相对影响.
主要方法:
- 使用回归分析,将变量标准化为正常分布.
- 每日死亡率增长率的估计变化,表示系数作为可比单位的绝对值权重.
主要成果:
- 预计死亡率的增长率随着人口规模和平均年龄的增加而增加.
- 随着社会经济地位和疫苗接种后状态的提高,死亡率的增长率下降.
- 人口规模和平均年龄发挥了最重要的影响,而社会经济排名和疫苗接种率的影响较小.
结论:
- 在拥有老年人口的大城市优先进行干预,以减轻COVID-19死亡率.
- 加强市级卫生,福利和城市服务之间的协调,特别是在人口密的城市地区.
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