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艾滋病毒发病率,迁移和诊断动态,法国,2012-2023年:监测和建模数据分析

Amber Kunkel¹, Amadou Alioum², Florence Lot¹

¹Unité VIH-hépatites B/C-IST, Direction des maladies infectieuses, Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)

|July 24, 2025

概括

在法国大多数外国出生群体中,艾滋病毒诊断已经稳定,但在来自撒哈拉以南非洲的与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 中增加. 预防和诊断移民后感染对于艾滋病毒预防工作至关重要.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
数学建模的数学建模

背景情况:

自2012年以来,法国与男性发生性关系的本地男性 (MSM) 的新艾滋病毒诊断数量有所下降.
外国出生的MSM和异性恋者的趋势不同,没有观察到下降.
了解移民在艾滋病毒流行病学中的作用至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析法国艾滋病毒发病率趋势.
量化艾滋病毒未诊断感染者的移民 (PLHIV).
评估外国出生人口中诊断延迟情况.

主要方法:

对诊断延迟和迁移前感染的数学建模.
来自法国 (2012-2023) 的艾滋病毒监测数据分析.
使用人口统计数据估计艾滋病毒发病率和移民PLHIV.

主要成果:

在COVID-19期间,未被诊断的PLHIV入境人数下降,但恢复了以前的趋势;HIV发病率不受影响.
尽管移民增加,但撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 人口的HIV发病率和未诊断的PLHIV迁移稳定.
在外国出生的MSM中观察到增加的HIV发病率和未诊断的PLHIV迁移,包括来自SSA的MSM.

结论:

对于外国出生的个人来说,预防艾滋病毒的进展是多样化的.
专注于预防和诊断移民后的艾滋病毒感染对于制传播至关重要.
移民后感染的及时诊断与在法国出生的个体的及时诊断相当.

关键词:

贝叶斯模型是贝叶斯模型.艾滋病毒发病率艾滋病毒发病率在国外出生的MSM和MSM.移民移民迁移迁移感染的地方.

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