老年人癌症手术后的家庭护理:预测工具的推导和验证
Julie Hallet1,2,3,4, Tiago Ribeiro5, Alyson L Mahar6,7
1Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. julie.hallet@sunnybrook.ca.
Annals of surgical oncology
|July 24, 2025
概括
一个新的HOMECARE工具预测了老年人癌症手术后需要家庭支持的需求. 这个风险计算器有助于向患者及其家人传达潜在的家庭护理需求.
科学领域:
- 老年人手术是一门老年人手术.
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 家庭支持是以患者为中心的关键结果和老年人手术后功能恢复标志物.
- 估计家庭护理需求对于计划和患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证HOMECARE风险预测模型.
- 估计接受癌症手术的老年人需要立即和慢性家庭护理的风险.
主要方法:
- 对70岁以上接受癌症手术的成年人进行基于人口的回顾性队列研究 (2007-2019).
- 后勤回归模型用于预测立即 (1个月内) 和慢性 (7-12个月) 家庭护理.
- 内部验证使用引导重新抽样 (500个样本) 进行.
主要成果:
- 该研究包括93,883名患者,41.7%需要立即的家庭护理,25%需要慢性家庭护理.
- 家庭护理模型表现出良好的预测性能,曲线下的面积为立即家庭护理的0.77和慢性家庭护理的0.76.
- 模型校准很强,风险分数的预测和观察概率之间的偏差最小.
结论:
- 在癌症手术后,HOMECARE工具显示出良好的歧视和校准,用于预测癌症手术后老年人家庭护理需求.
- 在线计算器版本的HOMECARE可以促进个性化的风险沟通.
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