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从1990年到2021年,恶性皮肤黑色素瘤的负担趋势和预测分析
Xingkai Wang1,2, Junwu Huang3, Jianping Hu1,2
1Department of Orthopaedics, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University, School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
International journal of surgery (London, England)
|July 24, 2025
概括
恶性皮肤黑色素瘤 (MSM) 的全球健康负担自20世纪90年代以来稳步增加. 这项研究分析了MSM趋势,并强调需要有针对性的干预措施来管理这个日益增长的公共卫生挑战.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 恶性皮肤黑色素瘤 (MSM) 是一种严重的皮肤癌,其死亡率和转移率很高.
- 全球MSM的全球健康负担在全球范围内构成了重大的公共卫生挑战.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内对所有年龄段的恶性皮肤黑色素瘤负担趋势进行全面分析.
- 检查从1990年到2021年的患病率,发病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
- 使用ARIMA模型预测未来的MSM趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据库用于流行率,发病率和DALY数据 (1990-2021).
- 员工加入点回归分析以计算平均年度百分比变化 (AAPC).
- 应用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型用于未来趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 恶性皮肤黑色素瘤的全球健康负担自20世纪90年代以来一直呈现持续增长.
- 在全球不同地区和不同人口中观察到MSM负担的显著差异.
- 分析显示,在研究期间,MSM流行和发病率呈上升趋势.
结论:
- 有效和有针对性的干预措施对于管理恶性皮肤黑色素瘤日益增加的负担至关重要.
- 应对来自MSM的全球公共卫生压力需要战略和本地化的方法.
- 持续监测和研究对于打击恶性皮肤黑色素瘤的上升趋势至关重要.
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