减少地球的碳预算不平衡
Sudhanshu Pandey1, Frédéric Chevallier2, Christian Rödenbeck3
1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. sudhanshu.pandey@jpl.nasa.gov.
Nature communications
|July 24, 2025
概括
全球碳项目 (GCP) 通过改进模型和数据,将其全球碳预算失衡减少了37%. 这表明,在了解地球的碳循环和更准确的碳汇估计方面取得了重大进展.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 碳循环研究 碳循环研究
背景情况:
- 全球碳项目 (GCP) 每年综合估计人为二氧化碳排放量,陆地和海洋沉积量以及大气二氧化碳增长率.
- 全球碳预算失衡凸显了这些组成部分估计的总体不准确性.
- 海洋边界层 (MBL) 的增长率估计被认为是非常准确的,陆地和海洋沉模型经常被认为是失衡的主要来源.
研究的目的:
- 调查使用MBL增长率来表示整个大气层所产生的差异.
- 通过校正和模型改进量化全球碳预算不平衡的减少.
- 评估对地球碳循环的科学理解的整体改进.
主要方法:
- 通过使用大气流量逆转,对整个大气表现的MBL增长率估计进行校正.
- 分析2017年至2023年GCP报告之间的全球碳预算不平衡指标.
- 评估更新碳预算组件,强制数据和新碳循环过程的影响.
主要成果:
- 纠正MBL差异使2023年GCP报告的根-平均-平方 (RMS) 不平衡减少了高达25%.
- 在2017年至2023年期间,由于组件更新和流程改进,整体不平衡减少了16%.
- 通过模型改进和大气增长率调整,RMS不平衡总共减少了37% (从0.91到0.57 PgC yr-1).
结论:
- 陆地和海洋过程模型比以前假设的更准确.
- 工艺模型和排放库存的改进得到了定量证明.
- 科学对地球碳循环的理解已经大大进步.
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