相关实验视频
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通过使用集体分解模型预测月度河流水位
Chaitanya Baliram Pande1,2,3, Lariyah Mohd Sidek4, Bijay Halder5
1Institute of Energy Infrastructure, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, 43000, Kajang, Malaysia. chaitanay45@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|July 24, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一种混合模型,将完整集体实证模式分解与自适应噪声 (CEEMDAN) 和机器学习相结合,用于准确的河流水位预测. CEEMDAN-RF模型表现出卓越的性能,增强了用于可持续水资源管理的水文预测.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源水文与水资源
- 环境科学中的人工智能
- 机器学习用于预测建模.
背景情况:
- 准确的流域预测和预测对于有效的洪水管理和可持续的水资源开发至关重要.
- 传统的水文模型经常与河流水位的复杂,非线性动态作斗争.
- 集成先进的分解技术和机器学习提供了一个有希望的方法来提高预测准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估混合模型,以准确的每月河流水位预测.
- 为了比较混合模型的性能,结合完整集体实证模式分解与自适应噪声 (CEEMDAN) 与独立的机器学习模型.
- 确定最佳的建模策略,以提高Sg Muar流域的水文预测.
主要方法:
- 混合建模方法将CEEMDAN用于数据分解与支持矢量机 (SVM),随机森林 (RF) 和随机子空间 (RS) 算法相结合.
- 使用了两个变量组合:来自CEEMDAN的滞后值和内在模式函数 (IMF).
- 使用统计指标评估模型性能,包括确定系数 (R2),根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和平均平方误差 (MSE).
主要成果:
- 混合模型,特别是CEEMDAN-RF (R2=0.98培训,R2=0.94测试),在预测河流水位方面明显优于独立模型.
- 通过将数据分成子频率,CEEMDAN分解技术有效地提高了预测准确度.
- 在测试阶段,CEEMDAN-RF模型以最低的RMSE (0.13) 和MSE (0.02) 实现了最佳性能.
结论:
- 基于CEEMDAN的混合建模方法对于复杂的河流水位预测非常有效.
- 通过更好地了解数据趋势,季节性和波动,CEEMDAN提高了模型性能.
- 这种新的混合建模策略有助于可持续和优化利用水资源,与可持续发展目标保持一致.
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