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模拟海在一个高生存率世界中的种群动态
Michael D Arendt1, Jeffrey A Schwenter2
1Marine Resources Division, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, 217 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC, 29412, USA. arendtmd@dnr.sc.gov.
Scientific reports
|July 24, 2025
概括
海巢数量正在上升,但变化更大. 一个人口模拟器显示,老与年轻的比例最能预测未来的数量,即使生存率很高.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 全球海巢数量往往超过了保护前的水平.
- 巢数量的年间变化增加使趋势的解释变得复杂.
- 了解种群动态对于有效保护海至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用人口模拟器调查海种群的人口变化.
- 确定关键的人口统计指标,以预测未来的化趋势.
- 为了将模拟的种群动态与海 (Caretta caretta) 筑巢数据进行比较.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个闭环人口模拟器来模拟人口变化.
- 从1950年到2018年,九个生命史参数受到随机变化的影响.
- 模拟的人口统计指标与三十年的木头巢数据进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 六个人口统计指标 (,成熟/不成熟的丰富度,成熟/不成熟的性别比,神经生存等效) 显示出强烈的相互预测.
- 丰富度的波动与年龄组的性别比率相反.
- 年长的 (20-29岁) 与年轻的 (10-19岁) 个体的比率最好地预测了21年滞后的年度巢数.
结论:
- 特定的人口统计指标对于监测海种群非常有价值.
- 预计未来的数将会波动,即使在生存率高的条件下.
- 这些发现支持使用年龄结构分析来预测海种群趋势.
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