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Updated: Sep 14, 2025

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使用自回归分数集成移动平均线模型预测结核病流行:一个17年的时间序列分析

Yongbin Wang1, Yifang Liang1, Bingjie Zhang1

  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, China.

Journal of global health
|July 25, 2025
PubMed
概括

自动回归分数集成移动平均 (ARFIMA) 模型在中国河南提供比传统ARIMA模型更准确的结核病 (TB) 预测. 这种改进的结核病预测有助于公共卫生工作,通过更好地捕捉长期趋势和季节性模式.

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相关概念视频

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data01:25

Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data

Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
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Pulmonary Tuberculosis II

Tuberculosis, or TB, is a bacterial infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. While its primary impact is on the lungs, leading to pulmonary tuberculosis, it can also affect various other organs, a condition referred to as extrapulmonary tuberculosis.
Here is a detailed explanation of its pathophysiology:
Transmission: The process begins when a person inhales droplet nuclei containing M. tuberculosis. These are typically released into the air when an individual with pulmonary or...
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Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis01:23

Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis

Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
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Residuals and Least-Squares Property01:11

Residuals and Least-Squares Property

The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
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Pulmonary Tuberculosis I01:29

Pulmonary Tuberculosis I

Tuberculosis, often called TB, is a contagious illness primarily caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. It mainly affects the lung parenchyma but can also impact other body parts.
Causative Organism
The primary infectious agent causing tuberculosis is Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a slow-growing, acid-fast, aerobic rod that exhibits sensitivity to heat and ultraviolet light. Instances of Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium avium contributing to the development of TB infection are rare.
Mode of...
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