在Y-STR参考数据库中找到微量捐赠者及其父系亲属的概率
Tóra Oluffa Stenberg Olsen1, Niels Morling2, Poul Svante Eriksen1
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University, DK-9220 Aalborg, Denmark.
Forensic science international. Genetics
|July 27, 2025
概括
法医调查基因谱系使用Y染色体短串重复 (Y-STR) DNA 档案可以识别犯罪嫌疑人. 较大的Y-STR数据库增加了找到匹配和近亲的概率,有助于调查.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 人口遗传学 人口遗传学
- 生物信息学是一种生物信息学.
背景情况:
- 法医调查遗传谱系利用Y染色体短串重复 (Y-STR) DNA 档案来产生刑事案件的调查线索.
- 在Y-STR数据库中搜索准确或接近匹配的数据,有助于识别潜在嫌疑人或他们的亲属.
研究的目的:
- 通过模拟,估计在Y-STR数据库中找到匹配和接近匹配的概率.
- 通过Y-STR数据库搜索量化识别痕迹档案捐赠者或其近亲的成功率.
主要方法:
- 模拟Y-STR种群使用malan R软件包,基于赖特-费舍尔模型和YHRD突变率.
- 以贝叶斯式的方式将不确定性纳入,其中包括生殖成功和人口增长的差异.
- 从YfilerTM Plus和PowerPlex® Y23数据集生成Y-STR数据库,与人口相比,数据库大小各不相同.
主要成果:
- 数据库大小为0.5%,匹配概率为6% (YfilerTM Plus) 和10% (PowerPlex® Y23).
- 将数据库大小增加到5%的结果是匹配概率为41% (YfilerTM Plus) 和54% (PowerPlex® Y23).
- 当找到匹配时,在五个半衰期内找到亲属的概率为64% (YfilerTM Plus) 和56% (PowerPlex® Y23),找到最近亲属的概率为91%.
结论:
- 较大的Y-STR数据库显著增加了找到匹配和近亲的可能性.
- 具有Y-STR分析的法医调查遗传谱系是刑事调查的宝贵工具.
- 该研究量化了Y-STR数据库在识别冷案件中的潜在线索方面的有效性.
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