通过时间序列和机器学习模型对艾滋病毒和抗逆转录病毒疗法病例的统计建模和预测
1Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, 21589, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. abdullahmalmarashi@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|July 27, 2025
概括
巴基斯坦的一项研究发现,NNAR模型能够准确预测人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 和抗逆转录病毒疗法 (ART) 病例. 这种非线性方法预测艾滋病毒和ART病例的每月显著增加,有助于疾病管理策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 破坏免疫系统,可能导致获得性免疫缺陷综合征 (AIDS).
- 抗逆转录病毒疗法 (ART) 通过抑制病毒复制对治疗HIV至关重要.
- 准确的传染病预测对于有效的公共卫生干预和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定有效的时间序列预测模型,用于巴基斯坦的HIV和ART病例.
- 分析2016年至2021年每月的HIV和ART病例数据.
- 为了比较各种时间序列模型的预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 利用来自巴基斯坦国家艾滋病控制计划 (2016-2021) 的每月HIV和ART病例数据.
- 应用时间序列模型:ARIMA,指数平滑 (布朗,霍尔特,冬季),NNAR和ETS.
- 通过使用RMSE,MAE和MAPE等准确度指标评估模型.
主要成果:
- 每月的平均病例:36,405例 (艾滋病毒) 和28,287例 (ART).
- 神经网络自动回归 (NNAR) 模型 (1,1,2) 在HIV和ART病例预测方面表现出最高的准确性.
- 该NNAR模型预测艾滋病毒病例每月增加4.98%,ART病例每月增加16.32%.
结论:
- 非线性NNAR模型在预测巴基斯坦HIV和ART病例方面优越.
- 这些发现支持通过准确的预测改善疾病管理和预防策略.
- 为决策者和医疗保健专业人员提出建议,以加强公共卫生干预.
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