用一个分区框架来建模天花的传播,以评估测试,隔离和公众意识战略
Akindele Akano Onifade1, Oluwaseun Adenike Akindele2, Irfan Ahmad3
1Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Mountain Top University, Ibafo, Nigeria.
Scientific reports
|July 27, 2025
概括
(mpox) 传播的数学建模显示,公众意识和隔离是控制疫情的关键. 有效的干预措施显著减少了mopox的传播,有助于公共卫生准备.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 最近全球爆发的麻疹 (mpox) 突显了了解和控制其传播动态的迫切需要.
- 莫波克斯对公共卫生构成重大挑战,影响人类和非人类灵长类动物.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析mopox传输的确定性数学模型.
- 评估自我隔离,检测和公众意识对缓解mopox传播的影响.
- 确定影响mopox传输和有效控制策略的关键参数.
主要方法:
- 为mopox传输动力学的确定性数学模型的开发.
- 模型的校准使用美国的发病率数据通过非线性最小正方形匹配.
- 稳定性分析以确定疾病消除与持续传播的条件.
- 敏感性分析,以评估各种参数对疾病传播的影响.
- 数字模拟来证明有针对性的干预措施的有效性.
主要成果:
- 基本的繁殖数 ([公式:见文本]) 确定疾病的持续性;[公式:见文本]<1导致消除,而[公式:见文本]>1表明流行性.
- 传播率,公众意识水平和隔离遵守是影响mopox传播的关键因素.
- 敏感性分析证实,即使部分遵守目标策略,也可以大幅减少新的mopox感染.
结论:
- 综合战略结合隔离,测试和公众意识,对于管理mpox疫情至关重要.
- 数学建模为设计有效的公共卫生干预措施对抗mopox.提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这些发现支持通过基于证据的战略,加强对未来mopox疫情的准备.
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