作为对相对海平面变化的反应,沿海洪水风险的局部加速
Ryan Paulik1, Rebecca Welsh2,3, John Powell2
1Earth Sciences New Zealand, 301 Evans Bay, Greta Point, Wellington, 6021, New Zealand. ryan.paulik@niwa.co.nz.
Scientific reports
|July 27, 2025
概括
沿海社区面临海平面上升 (SLR) 和垂直陆地运动 (VLM) 的洪水风险上升. 包括VLM在评估中显著增加了预计的财务损失,并改变了沿海地区的洪水时间.
科学领域:
- 地球和海洋科学 地球和海洋科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球沿海社区面临因海平面上升 (SLR) 加速而出现的偶发洪水的威胁.
- 当地垂直陆地运动 (VLM),包括沉降和升起,极大地影响了相对海平面 (RSL) 变化的时间和严重程度以及相关的洪水风险.
- 了解全球SLR和本地VLM之间的相互作用对于准确的沿海洪水风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的RSL变化场景下,量化新西兰极端海平面驱动的洪水造成的建筑财务损失.
- 评估当地垂直陆地运动 (VLM) 对下个世纪沿海洪水预测时间和规模的影响.
- 突出将VLM纳入沿海洪水风险评估中的必要性,以有效地规划减缓风险.
主要方法:
- 使用共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景2-4.5和5.8-5用于中度信心SLR预测.
- 在100年的时间里,计算了个别建筑物对象的财务损失,并结合了当地VLM数据.
- 分析了VLM对沿海洪水的时间和财务方面的影响,无论是在国家级还是地方级.
主要成果:
- 当地VLM被发现,到2100年,与单独的SLR相比,全国100年沿海洪水的财务损失将增加15%.
- 将VLM纳入其中,使预计的世纪末财务损失的出现加速了10到12年.
- 在地方范围内,VLM导致的年度损失在下行趋势的地区早25年,在上行趋势的地区晚19年.
结论:
- 垂直陆地运动显著加剧了沿海洪水风险和财务损失,需要将其纳入未来的评估.
- 精确的沿海洪水风险管理需要整合VLM,以精确确定缓解策略的时间和地点.
- 这项研究强调了海平面上升影响的局部性质以及VLM在塑造未来沿海脆弱性的关键作用.
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