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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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可解释的人工智能驱动的评估水气候相互作用塑造河流排放动态在季风盆地
Prashant Parasar1, Akhouri Pramod Krishna2
1Department of Remote Sensing, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi, Jharkhand, 835215, India. phdrs10003.20@bitmesra.ac.in.
Scientific reports
|July 27, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的深度学习框架,使用科尔莫戈罗夫·阿诺德网络 (KAN) 和沙普利增量扩展 (SHAP) 来准确地预测季风地区的河流排放情况. 该模型显示了高预测性能,并确定了关键的水气候驱动因素,提供了气候弹性决策支持工具.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源水文与水资源
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 准确的河流排放预测对于水资源管理至关重要,尤其是在面临极端天气的季风地区.
- 现有的水文模型经常与季风影响的盆地特有的变化和数据限制作斗争.
- 苏巴纳雷哈河流域 (SRB) 为这些挑战提供了一个案例研究,因为它容易受到季风变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估可解释的深度学习框架,用于SRB中的每日河流排放预测.
- 将科尔莫戈罗夫阿诺德网络 (KAN) 与沙普利增量解释 (SHAP) 集成,以提高预测准确性和可解释性.
- 根据SSP585情景,使用CMIP6 GCMs的水气候预测来评估框架的性能.
主要方法:
- 利用Kolmogorov Arnold Networks (KAN),一种新的深度学习架构,用于对河流排放的时间序列预测.
- 集成的沙普利增量解释 (SHAP) 分析特征的重要性和理解模型预测.
- 根据SSP585情景,在四个测量站进行培训和验证,采用了来自五个CMIP6通用循环模型 (GCM) 的水气气候数据.
主要成果:
- KAN显示出高预测准确度,纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 从0.80到0.87不等,R2值从0.84到0.90.
- SHAP分析确定了相对湿度 (hurs),特定湿度 (huss) 和温度 (tas) 作为关键预测因素,而降水 (pr) 显示影响有限.
- 功能重要性分析显示了显著的变化,表明了特定站的不确定性,并突出了KAN在捕捉季节动态和极端事件方面的稳定性.
结论:
- 该KAN-SHAP框架为数据有限,季风影响地区的水文建模提供了准确,可解释和高效的方法.
- SHAP提供的可解释性支持知情的水资源规划和决策.
- 这种新的框架作为一个可重复的,气候适应性的决策支持工具,用于在极端水气候条件下管理水资源.
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